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The MALINDO DEFENCE Daily

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Anwar vs Popular Vote

After Anwar Ibrahim joined Umno, he stood under the Barisan Nasional ticket in four general elections - 1982, 1986, 1990 & 1995.
In 1982, BN won 60% popular votes but 85% parliament seats.
It was a gross 25% difference but Anwar, who was made a deputy minister in the prime minister's department afterwards, did not complain.
In 1986, BN won 57% popular votes but 83% parliament seats. It was 26% difference, but Anwar did not make noise about electoral injustice.
In the 1990, BN won 53% popular votes but 70% parliament seats. A 17% difference but Anwar was quiet about it.
In 1995, BN won 65% popular votes but 84% parliament seats. This time 19% difference but Anwar kept mum.
In the latest GE, 2013, BN won 48% popular votes and 60% parliament seats. It was just a difference of 12%, but Anwar is NOW ONLY, hopping mad and crying foul.
He had has held 16, 505 rallies protesting against the election results.
He described GE13 as the 'mother of all frauds'. He claimed he could not become the Prime Minister because of injustice and unfair electoral system blah blah blah.
When the "popular votes" was working for Anwar, he did not say ANYTHING... truth be told...


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Wednesday, June 12, 2013


Deal all,

Salam....

Regarding talks that the Chinese community overwhelmingly (90%-95%) voted against BN in the last GE, I find it baffling..

  1. ….that a community can be so united in displaying its political will.
  2. ….and able to pull off such a thing quietly without being detected in advance by our leaders.


Amazing, eh?

  • All the free dinners, free concerts and bla,bla, bla, whilst giving the impression that support was forthcoming to BN, didn't materialize at all.

  • In short, appears that PM Najib and BN "sudah kena kencing bigtime lah" by the Chinese community!


Well, on a serious not, I'm just trying to understand the factors that led to such a united voting pattern from the Chinese community. Allow me to share my thoughts with you on why such a phenomena happened.



FACTOR 1 :
The Floodgate has been opened wide after the 2008 GE, thanks to Pak Lah.

  • In the past (prior to 2008),  Chinese feel they have no choice politically but to vote BN  for their economic survival.

  • They have no choice politically largely because of the FEAR of the unknown.

  • The fear that the Opposition may bankrupt the country, or may not govern well, leading to their rice bowls being affected.

  • BN has been successful in conditioning that into their minds.

  • So even if UMNO is deemed racist, the Chinese just tutup telinga and ignore as long as they can survive and make money.

  • But after the 2008 GE, the floodgate has been opened wide, thanks to Pak Lah.

  • Perception of the leadership then was so bad that maybe led to the Chinese to just tutup mata and voted for the Opposition. That fear has suddenly been overcome.

  • Now there is NO more fear of the unknown as the floodgate has been opened wide.

  • Why? The Opposition has shown that they can govern well in the states that they are in control.  And they're capable of helming the Federal Govt. So the Chinese  fears towards the Opposition all the while seem unfounded. Chinese now feel they have a choice, politically.

  • Now the Chinese realize they're politically rejuvenated.



FACTOR 2 :
Flaring up of racial sentiments by the Opposition especially DAP.

  • The call for MC A to be punished for being UMNO lackeys is actually racist in nature.

  • Plus the perception that Chinese has been marginalized and treated as second class citizens by the UMNO led BN Govt also made things worse.

  • But this factor on its own would NOT work to drive the Chinese to overwhelmly reject BN. (Why I say so? The DAP has been using the same tactics for decades without much success). So there must be other factors coming into play as well. (so see analysis below).



FACTOR 3 : Perception of a corrupt and rotten Government.

  • The perception that MCA leaders semua sudah "kenyang", so it high time to give opportunity to the DAP. But such perception is not only confined to the MCA but extended to the other component parties in BN as well.



ANALYSIS :

  • In my humble opinion, Factor 2 (Flaring up of racial sentiments by the DAP) in the past few decades DID NOT WORK in full simply because of the absence of FACTOR 1 i.e. the floodgate has NOT been opened wide then.

  • But after the 2008 GE, Factor 1 (the floodgate has been opened wide), came into play. That opened to the eyes of other Chinese as well.

  • Chinese who voted for BN in the 2008 GE, realize now have a choice to vote for the Opposition. So they voted  for the Opposition in 2013.

  • Plus the Chinese who voted for the Opposition back in 2008, also voted similarly  in 2013.

  • That's why BN kena double whammy…Chinese overwhelmingly voted for the Opposition in the 2013 GE. (That was not the case back in 2008).

  • This also explain why despite the incessant attacks by BN to potray the Opposition as a fragmented coalition with differing ideologies simply did not work with the Chinese community. As there is now no more fear of the unknown! (Remember, the floodgate has been opened wide?).



What does the above all mean?

  • Even if PM Najib manage to overcome Factor 3 by improving his Administration's governance and eliminate corruption completely by appointing angels into his administration, will the Chinese vote come back to BN in the next GE?

  • Well, not necessarily in my view since you still have Factor 1 (the floodgate has been opened wide) and Factor 2 (flaring up of racial sentiments by the DAP)coming into play.


What am I trying to say?

  • Basically whatever effort put in or resources poured into the Chinese community by the PM and his administration will not necessarily get BN the votes simply because of factor 1 and factor 2, which will still come into play in each and subsequent GEs.

  • Floodgate tu dah terbukak and terkangkang besar, so menang tak boleh tutup pun…

  • …unless the Govt goes for full meritocracy and eliminate any form of preferential treatment for Bumis. But then, that would be a political suicide since Malays still form the majority of this country and any attempt to do so will result to a backlash.



CONCLUSION :

  • No one wants to do an investment with negative return. Or putting more and more resources, yet the results seem stagnant.

  • Our PM should gauge what is the OPTIMUM amount of effort and resources to be put in to woo the Chinese community, given that factor 1 and factor 2 will still come into play in the next GE. Kalau tak, nanti kena kencing bigtime lagi..

  • The balance of the resources should be channelled elsewhere i.e. to the other communities to get better returns.
__._,_.___



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Monday, June 10, 2013


RACIAL POLARIZATION


1. After Parliament was dissolved on the 13th April 2013, I was interviewed by a BBC journalist. He appeared quite convinced that race-based parties such as those in the National Front would be rejected by a more liberal electorate which believes in democracy, freedom and non-racial politics. Also the idealistic young would reject the BN.
2. I had to disagree with him as I believed that racial polarization in Malaysia had become more pronounced now than ever before. I may not always be right but after 60 years involvement in Malaysian politics I felt strongly that the race factor will continue to dominate the politics of the country.  The quality of the candidates or parties, the ideologies and the desire for change will always be secondary to race.
3. The election results showed that I was right. The DAP playing on racial sentiments drew the Chinese away from BN by depicting the MCA as lackeys of UMNO. The DAP won 38 seats, reducing the MCA’s seats from 15 to 7. The Gerakan won one seat out of two. All the DAP Chinese contested in Chinese majority constituencies.  A few of the MCA, Gerakan and MIC candidates contested in Malay majority constituencies.
4. Although the DAP claims to be multiracial, it is in fact a Chinese party with mainly Chinese members and leadership. When it held elections to its Central Committee recently other than Karpal Singh all the members elected were Chinese.

5. Hatred of the Malays was whipped up through the slogan “Malaysian Malaysia”, implying that Malaysia is for the Malays only while other races were discriminated against and alleged to be second class citizens.  Advocating meritocracy, the extremists Chinese in the DAP charged the BN Government  of discriminating in favour of the Malays even though they were inferior and less qualified for places in the universities, awards of scholarships, contracts, licences and positions in the Government.  The Malay leaders were not as able as the non-Malay leaders who possess greater merit.
6. Whenever Government policies such as the NEP were defended, the defenders whether in the Government or NGO’s are labelled racist.  The Malay parties in the election pact in Pakatan were tolerated because they were useful for election purposes.
7. If more proof is needed of the role of Chinese racism in the 13th GE, the demonstrations accusing the BN of fraud and cheating in the elections, despite being organised by Anwar and the PKR, are largely attended by Chinese, especially the young. Within the Country and abroad, Chinese youths wearing black shirts and masks made up most of the demonstrators. Usually Malays make up the majority of the demonstrators.  The lack of respect for the national flag was shown by Chinese young people in Taiwan holding it upside down. Although DAP and PKR participated in these demos, PAS members were noticeably absent. In fact PAS leaders dissociated themselves from the agitation to overthrow the Government through street demos ala Arab Spring. The protests seem to be mainly a Chinese affair.
8. The indisputable fact is that the DAP has succeeded in destroying the collaboration or sharing between the different races as exemplified by the BN coalition. The Pakatan is not a true coalition. It is simply an election pact between the parties opposed to the BN. This pact clearly benefited the chauvinist Chinese in DAP most, while PAS the most Malay of the Pakatan parties benefited the least, winning only 21 seats against DAP’s 38 and PKR’s 30.  Actually although PAS contested in more constituencies than DAP, it lost two seats more than in 2008.
9. If today the schism between the races is deeper it is because the DAP reject the Malay/Chinese/Indian “kongsi”. The DAP wants the Chinese who already dominate the economy, to dominate Malaysia’s politics as well. It is clearly racist and reject inter-racial sharing of power and wealth as advocated by the BN. Racial polarization has become more pronounced as a result.  It will become more so in the future.



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